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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-01T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-01T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26703/-1
CME Note: Bright, wide, and fast CME seen emanating to the west-northwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery in association with a long-duration M1.2-class solar flare from Active Region 13413 (N09W70) and significant eruptive signature consisting of rising and "snapping" plasma seen best in SDO 304, a fast EUV wave seen off the limb moving to the east, quickly and rapidly opening magnetic field lines off the west-northwestern limb in SDO 193 and SDO 171 as well as a post-eruptive arcade signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-03T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/26717/1
Model Inputs:
2023-09-01T03:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=54.0, Lat.=22.0, Speed=1142.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2023-09-01T06:15Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-03T15:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-02T16:50Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-03T14:15Z
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-03T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230901_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 49.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2023-09-01T13:54Z

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